摘要
EstablishingpositiveandurgenttargetsforCO2reductionandemissionpeak,andpromotingenergyconservationandenergystructureadjustmentareamongthestrategiestoaddressglobalclimatechangeandCO2emissionsreduction.Theyarealsomeanstobreakthroughtheconstraintsofdomesticresourcesandenvironment,andinternalneeds,toachievesustainabledevelopment.Generallyspeaking,acountry’sCO2emissionpeakappearsafterachievingurbanizationandindustrialization.Bythen,connotativeeconomicgrowthwillappear,GDPwillgrowslowly,energyconsumptionelasticitywilldecrease,andenergyconsumptiongrowthwillslowdown-dependentmainlyonnewandrenewableenergies.Fossilfuelconsumptionwillnotincreasefurther.WhenCO2emissionreachesitspeak,theannualreductionrateofCO2intensityofGDPisgreaterthanGDPannualgrowthrate;andtheannualreductionrateofCO2intensityofenergyuseisgreaterthantheannualgrowthrateofenergyconsumption.Therefore,threeimportantapproachestopromotionofCO2emissionpeakcanbeconcluded:maintainingreasonablecontrolofGDPgrowth,strengtheningenergyconservationtosignificantlyreducetheGDPenergyintensity,andoptimizingtheenergymixtoreducetheCO2intensityofenergyuse.Byaround2030,Chinawillbasicallyhavecompleteditsrapiddevelopmentphaseofindustrializationandurbanization.ConnotativeeconomicgrowthwillappearwiththeaccelerationofindustrialstructureadjustmentThetargetofGDPenergyintensitywillstillbetomaintainanaverageannualreductionof3%orhigher.Theproportionofnon-fossilfuelswillreach20-25%,andtheaimwillbetomaintainanaverageannualgrowthrateof6-8%.Thetotalannualenergydemandgrowthof1.5%willbesatisfiedbythenewlyincreasedsupplyofnon-fossilfuels.TheannualdeclineinCO2intensityofGDPwillreach4.5%orhigher,whichiscompatiblewithanaverageannualGDPgrowth
出版日期
2014年03月13日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
