摘要
Climatevariabilitymodes,usuallyknownasprimaryclimatephenomena,arewellrecognizedasthemostimportantpredictabilitysourcesinsubseasonal–interannualclimateprediction.Thispaperbeginsbyreviewingtheresearchanddevelopmentcarriedout,andtherecentprogressmade,attheBeijingClimateCenter(BCC)inpredictingsomeprimaryclimatevariabilitymodes.TheseincludetheElNi?o–SouthernOscillation(ENSO),Madden–JulianOscillation(MJO),andArcticOscillation(AO),onglobalscales,aswellastheseasurfacetemperature(SST)modesintheIndianOceanandNorthAtlantic,westernPacificsubtropicalhigh(WPSH),andtheEastAsianwinterandsummermonsoons(EAWMandEASM,respectively),onregionalscales.Basedonitslatestclimateandstatisticalmodels,theBCChasestablishedaclimatephenomenonpredictionsystem(CPPS)andcompletedahindcastexperimentfortheperiod1991–2014.TheperformanceoftheCPPSinpredictingsuchclimatevariabilitymodesissystematicallyevaluated.TheresultsshowthatskillfulpredictionshavebeenmadeforENSO,MJO,theIndianOceanbasinmode,theWPSH,andpartlyfortheEASM,whereaslessskillfulpredictionsweremadefortheIndianOceanDipole(IOD)andNorthAtlanticSSTTripole,andnoclearskillatallfortheAO,subtropicalIOD,andEAWM.ImprovementsinthepredictionoftheseclimatevariabilitymodeswithlowskillneedtobeachievedbyimprovingtheBCC'sclimatemodels,developingphysicallybasedstatisticalmodelsaswellascorrectionmethodsformodelpredictions.Someofthemonitoring/predictionproductsoftheBCC-CPPSarealsointroducedinthispaper.
出版日期
2017年01月11日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
