简介：OnthebasisofMARKAL-MACROmodelof'Energy-Economy-Environment'systemandKeyfitzmodelofdemography,energydemandinChinainthefuturewascalculated.Threescenarioswereputforwardtakingintoaccountofenergyefficiency,energystructureandrestrictionofclimatechange.CO2EmissionsinChinawillreachpeakvalue11.85Gtin2042inreferencescenario;10.75Gtin2036inoptimizedscenario;and9.47Gtin2031inrestrictionscenarioofclimatechange.Comparewithreferencescenario,carbonemissionsinrestrictionscenarioofclimatechangewilldeclineby2.38Gt,andpeaktimewillbellyearsearlier.Withthedevelopmentofurbanizationandindustrialization,carbonemissionsfromelectricpower,cement,steelwillrisegraduallythengodown;butemissionsfromtrafficwillgoupcontinuouslybecauseoftheincreaseofvehiclefleet.