简介:Theworldeconomywassuffereddramaticallyin2008,becauseofthefinan-cialturnaoil.Itispredictedthatinthenextyears,Chinaeconomicgrowthwillslowdown,and2009wouldnotbethebottom,buttheeconomyfunda-mentalisstillhealthy.Asoft'U'turncanbeexpectedinthefuture.Macro-economyTwoofChinaeconomicgrowthpillarengines,exportsectorandreal-estateindustryhavebeensignificantlyinfluencedbytheglobalfinancialcrisis,trendsofthistwosectorsshowthatChinacouldnotbeanexceptioninthiseconomictur-moil.Theglobaleconomicturmoilhasasignificantnegativeimpactontheexportgrowth,anddomesticimportsalsoslowdownsincedomesticdemandhasbeenweaken,(SeeChart1)Asoneofthepillarindustry,realestateindustrysufferedalotundernationaldeclinelastyear,withanationalaveragedropof4.7percentonhousingprice.(SeeChart2)Domesticfixed-assetinvestmentgrowthhasalsosloweddown.Chinabusinesscyclesignalindexshowsthatthemacro-economicshasbeenslowingdown,andaccordingtothehistoryofChina'seconomy,thisdownturnwouldlastatleast3years,2009wouldnotbethecyclebottom.(SeeChart3)Thebusinesscyclesignalindexisdecliningfrom117.3inMayto94.7inOcto-ber,thefirsttimetodropunder100from1992,meaningthemacroeconomichasbeenslowingdown,butisstillinthestablezonesofar.LookingbackatthehistoryoverChina'spast30years,economicgrowthcycli-caldownturnwouldlastatleast3years.StandardCharteredBank'slatestreportreducedChinaGDPforecastfor2008to9.6percent,apoor7.9percentin2009,andevenlowerat7.1percentfor2010.(SeeChart4)ChinaisbelievedtobeshieldedfromchaoslikeUS,andfinancialwoeshavelimitedimpactonChina.Thecountryhadrichresourcereserves,greatmarketpo-tential,vigorousenterprisesandthegovernmenthadstrongmacro-controlabilities.Themajorindicatorsareinhealthycondition,whichcanhelpChinagovernmenttofighttheeconomyturmoilin2009.
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简介:在过去的二十年,在国际金融市场发生的许多变化,已经对发展中国家产生了重要影响。由于全球一体化的增进,发展中国家发生的一切对所有国家的商业显得日益重要。这篇文章讨论的是国际货币基金组织和世界银行在应对这些变化所导致的后果和试图制定新的规则去管治国际金融体系中所起的作用。它也讨论了当前发展中国家在国际金融体系管治结构中的作用以及它们更为强烈的参与的需要。最后它还提及,如果IMF和世界银行所倡导的好的管治方法与透明度只针对发展中国家而不适用于自己,它们将不再被信任。一般来说,工业化国家的跨国经营企业,特别是它们的私营金融部门的经营是否成功有赖于IMF和世界银行良好的管治。它们快速增长的国际活动只有在这两个国际机构的管治是有效、平等的并让所有成员国家包括发展中国家参与时,才会进展顺利。