简介：Canearthquakesbepredicted?Howshouldpeopleovercomethedifficultiesencounteredinthestudyofearthquakeprediction?Thisissuecantakeinspirationfromtheexperiencesofweatherforecast.Althoughweatherforecastingtookaperiodofabouthalfacenturytoadvancefromempiricaltonumericalforecast,ithasachievedsignificantsuccess.AconsensushasbeenreachedamongtheChineseseismologicalcommunitythatearthquakepredictionmustalsodevelopfromempiricalforecastingtophysicalprediction.However,itisseldommentionedthatphysicalpredictionischaracterizedbyquantitativelynumericalpredictionsbasedonphysicallaws.Thisarticlediscussesfivekeycomponentsfornumericalearthquakepredictionandtheircurrentstatus.Weconcludethatnumericalearthquakepredictionshouldnowbeputontheplanningagendaanditsroadmapdesigned,seismicstationsshouldbedeployedandobservationsmadeaccordingtotheneedsofnumericalprediction,andtheoreticalresearchshouldbecarriedout.

简介：Inthispaper,atwo-dimensionalprimitiveequationmodel,couplingdynamical,radiativeandphotochemicalprocesses,isusedtosimulatethequasi-biennialoscillation(QBO)inozone.TheQBOintotalozonehasbeensuccessfullysimulatedwhentheforcingofequatorialstratosphericQBOinzonalwindisimposed.ThesimulatedcharactersofQBOinozoneareincloseagreementwiththoseobserved.WefurtheranalyzedthemechanismofformationandmaintenanceofQBOinozone.InthedifferentphasesofQBOinequatorialstratosphericwindfield,theglobalcirculationhassogreatdifferencethatitmakestheeffectsofadvectiontransferandeddytransferpresentaquasi-biennialperiodicalvariation.Chemicaleffectanddynamicaleffectarebasicallyout-of-phase.TheytogetherformandmaintaintheQBOinozone.Totalvariationrateisatinydifferenceofthetwolargeamounts.Atthelowerlevelofmiddle-highlatitudes,however,ithasaphasedifferenceofabout1-2monthsbetweendynamicalandnegativechemicaleffects,wherethedynamicaleffectiscomparativelygreater.QBOinozonehasnoclearcountereffectsonatmosphericcirculation.TheexperimentresultsshowthattheeffectsofQBOinozoneontemperaturefieldandwindfieldareverysmall.

简介：-Inthispaperasimpleandefficientimplicitfinite-differenceschemeisusedfordepth-averagedtwo-dimensionalstormsurgemodel.Thisfinite-differenceschemeissimplerandmoreefficientthanthewi-dely-usedADIscheme.Accuracyanalysisandstabilityanalysisindicatethattheschemehastwo-orderac-curacyandisunconditionallystablewhenthegridsizeisconstant.ThepresentanalysisresultsshowthattheschemeisofhighernumericalaccuracythanthatintroducedbyMaa(1990).Aftertestedbyidealmod-els,acalculationexampleofarealtyphoonsurgeiscarriedout,theresultsofthenumericalsimulationco-incidewellwiththeobserveddataandtheaccuracyissufficientforengineeringapplications.

简介：A2-Dslab-symmetricmodelofmixedconvective-stratiformcloudisdevelopedbysuperimposingconvectivecloud-sizefieldontheconvergencefield,inordertosimulateandstudythemixedcloudsconsistingofstratiformcloudandconvectivecloud.Adeepconvective,anelasticandconservativesystemofequationswithbasicvariables(V,θ,π’)issolvedbyanewmethodtocalculatedynamicfield.Thewatersubstanceinthecloudisdividedinto6categoriesandthemicrophysicalprocessesaredescribedinspectrumwithtwovariableparametersandmorereasonableparticlenumber/sizedistributions.Tocomparewithmeasuredradarechointensityandstructure,themodelmaycalculateechointensityofthemodelcloudobservedbyradar.

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简介：Theunbondedflexiblepipeofeightlayers,inwhichallthelayersexceptthecarcasslayerareassumedtohaveisotropicproperties,hasbeenanalyzed.Specifically,thecarcasslayershowstheorthotropiccharacteristics.Theeffectiveelasticmoduliofthecarcasslayerhavebeendevelopedintermsoftheinfluenceofdeformationtostiffness.Withconsiderationoftheeffectiveelasticmoduli,thestructurecanbeproperlyanalyzed.Alsotherelativemovementsoftendonsandrelativedisplacementsofwiresinhelicalarmourlayerhavebeeninvestigated.Athree-dimensionalnonlinearfiniteelementmodelhasbeenpresentedtopredicttheresponseofflexiblepipesunderaxialforceandtorque.Further,thefrictionandcontactofinterlayerhavebeenconsidered.Comparisonbetweenthefiniteelementmodelandexperimentalresultsobtainedinliteraturehasbeengivenanddiscussed,whichmightprovidepracticalandtechnicalsupportfortheapplicationofunbondedflexiblepipes.

简介：Thecirculationofβ-gyresintropicalcyclonesisstudiedusingnumericalsimulations.Asshownintheresult,thereisclearcirculationofβ-gyresinthedeviationflowfieldofthemiddlelayerofthemodel,i.e.thereiscyclonecurrentwestofthevortexcenterbutanticyclonecurrenteastofit.Thetheoryanalysisshowsthatthecirculationofβ-gyresisformedbytheadvectionofgeostrophicvorticity.

简介：-Byusinggas-liquidtwo-phaseflowtheory,amodifiedmathematicalmodelbasedonthecomputationalfluiddynamicsmethodSIMPLE(Semi-ImplicitMethodforPressure-LinkedEquations)isintroducedtoinvestigateimplosionphenomenainhighpressurechamberssystematically.Atheoreticalsimulation-predictionmethod,whichisindependentofexperimentaldata,isdevelopedinthepaperandgreatimprovementhasbeenmadeonthetopic.Inthepaper,variousimplosionsituationshavebeensimulatedandpredicted.Effectsofaseriesoffactorsinfluencingimplosionresultsandmethodsofreducingimplosiondangerhavebeenanalysed.Theanalysisresultsareofimportancetounderwaterengineeringpractice.

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简介：Hydrodynamiccharactersonahorizontal,thin,rigidplatelocatedbeneaththefreesurfacearenumericallyinvestigated.Assumingalinear,time-harmonicpotentialflowandutilizingGreenidentity,thegoverningLaplaceequationcanbesimplifiedintoFredholmintegralequationofthesecondkind.Supposinglinear-orderdiscontinuouselementsalongintersectingverticalboundaries,andbyuseoftheboundaryelementmethod,numericalsolutionaboutsourcestrengthdistributionontheplatecanbechangedintoaseriesofalgebraicequations.The3DGreenfunctionisintroducedtosetuptheintegralequations,andtheGMRESsolverisperformedforsolvingthelargedenselinearsystemofequations.Theadded-mass,dampingforceandexcitingforceareevaluateddirectlyfromtheequations.Itisfoundthattheadded-masscoefficientbecomesnegativeforarangeoffrequencieswhentheplateissufficientlyclosetothefreesurface.

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简介：台风玛吉(1999)与另一个热带气旋系统交往了并且沿着在它的预先登陆的阶段期间是有点反常的一条西南西轨道移动了。Twonumerical实验在这篇论文被执行用有一个热带气旋bogusing计划的数字天气预言模型系统由沿海、大气的研究的中心开发了的中央规模在台风玛吉的轨道上学习相互作用的效果，科技的香港大学。结果表演气旋系统交往的withMaggie是为玛吉的反常磁道的主要因素。

简介：用高分辨率的非静水力学的模型ARPS(先进地区性的预言系统)，台风Rananim(0414)被使用CINRADDoppler雷达数据模仿。在台风前后的结果乍见陆地证明模型ARPS表现很好模仿轨道，中心压力的变化，以及Rananim的严重大雨。同时，模仿的合成反射率与观察雷达相比是合成反射率。数字结果表明Rananim的不均匀的结构在它向西偏斜在以后起一个重要作用乍见陆地。Rananim(0414)上的地面效果的敏感模拟实验也被调查，并且东南的中国的地面在它的轨道稍微向右转并且显然增加它的紧张的Rananim上有重要效果，但是当台风是远的离开海岸线时，地面仅仅稍微影响暴风雨紧张在期间它的乍见陆地。结果证明地志的上升极大地作出贡献到降水改进，并且使降水的分发更不平。[出版摘要]

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简介：Athree-stepfiniteelementmethod(FEM)togetherwithLargeEddySimulation(LES)isap-pliedtoincompressibleturbulentflowaroundseabedpipelinesatrelativelyhighReynoldsnumbers.Bothtwo-dimensionalandthree-dimensionalnumericalsimulationiscarriedouttodeterminethethree-dimensionaleffect.Theresultsofnumericalsimulationagreequitewellwiththewaveforcesactingonpipelinemodelsmeasuredinphysicalmodeltest.

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简介：Afive-layerprimitiveequationmodelwasusedinthestudyofrapidcyclogenesisoversea.Thenumericalsimulationsshowthat’theTibetanPlateau,large-scalebaroclinicityandheatfluxfromtheseasurfacearethethreeimportantagentstoproducecyclonicvorticityalongtheeastcoastofChina.Thediagnosticcomputationofa24hcontrolsimulationindicatesthatthenonlinearvorticityadvec-tion,baroclinicityanddiabaticheatingarealsoresponsibleforthedevelopmentoftheextratropicalcyclonesoverseas.